Build up to our spring housing market in Kitsap County

Spring is on the horizon and the super bowl is over so now it is time to try to get a sense as to what our spring home market will be like.

Here are some of the pieces that I believe will fuel a healthy market this year:
1) Seattle market has low inventory. Their home values will begin to escalate before ours. They will reach a point that will encourage buyers to look west for more value for their dollar.
2) Kitsap prices though still falling in many categories are beginning to stabilize; waterfront - still settling, $200,000 to $325,000 - stabilizing and beginning to go up due to low inventory.
3) Interest rates continue to remain lower than we have seen in 50+ years. (this equates to buying power)
4) It appears more government programs are on the horizon to encourage banks to work out mortgage modification with financially challenged home owners....this may help to keep some of the REO properties off the market, which will help remove low sale price offsets and reduce inventory.

All in all, if you are going to be owning your next home for 4 or more years....now is a good time to buy.

Kitsap County, WA, Real Etate Graph

This is a great snap shot of what is happening in Kitsap County, WA.....From a Real Estate prospecitve:

Note the red line which indicates pending is trending up. This will lead to a more balanced market if the trend continues. As pending goes up, invenory will go down.

We currently have over 2400 homes on the market in Kitsap County. I've seen a low in the lower 700 range and this is a high. I would like to see it closer to 1500 or so. Stay tuned....the adventure continues.....................

The real estate market, much the same but at least we are used to it.

Well here we are, almost through the first quarter of 2008. By now many thought we would be through the tough times. I think realization began to set in towards the end of 2007 or certainly by mid February as more and more sub-prime woes spilled out.

So...where are we now? I actually think we are better off this year than last. Even if it is a psychological factor of once you get past the shock you begin to acclimate. Sellers are becoming more realistic about their homes value. Agents are focusing more on sold data. Buyers are asking more questions about their loans and are actually much more informed than I think in the past.

Where we are is not all that bad, at least in this neck of the woods. I'll hear agents indicate it will be another year before we are done with this......do they think someone will through a switch at 12:53 pm on April 18, 2009 and the market will return to what it was 3 years ago??? What we will be seeing is a slow increase in market health. None of us want it to shoot upwards, just a nice slow improvement.

What does improvement look like? 1)Reduced inventory, we currently have 2259 listings on the market in Kitsap County. Getting below 2000 will indicate we are headed in the right direction. I've seen a low of 700 or so. 2) Slight increase in sales. Last week we had 45 homes go into a pending state. This means we currently have 50 weeks of inventory, certainly a buyers market. Both of these items will help to bring down our "days on market" which is currently 98...which is not bad compared to other parts of the country that are well into the triple digits. It will also allow homes to begin a more sustainable value growth. A 3% to 5% increase in your homes value each year is a nice place to be.

2007 Year End Real Estate Letter

I hope this annual letter and calendar find you and yours doing well. Please note that your calendar starts on December 1^st so go ahead and start planning next year today.

2007 has been an interesting year in real estate. The good news is the northwest has done very well in these turbulent times (except Tacoma Pierce). Even though we have seen our value increases flatten, our inventory grow and our market times lengthen we are still far better off than many other areas.

Some Stats comparing 2007 to 2004-2006 in Kitsap County (through Nov. 1 2007)
2004 2005 2006 2007

# of New Listings: 5038 5237 5634 6007

# of transactions: 3823 3871 3406 2836

Avg. Days on Market: 65 58 63 89

Avg. Sale Price $254,809 $307,235 $336,299 $367,730

You have heard a lot of talk about our real estate market. Much of the discussion has been framed by the media in a very negative light. When you add to it new highs for the price of oil, a lot of discussion about subprime lending and a falling stock market there is some room for jittery nerves. Real estate is a very local discussion. Sweeping generalizations of the real estate market cannot do it justice, you have to talk with local Realtors to get the straight scoop about their area.

Some facts about our area that make it a great place to live, buy and own a home. Our economy seems to be stable, unemployment is at 4.2%. Though subprime loans in the US accounted for upwards of 20% of the loans made in 2006, in our area only 8% of them were subprime. Money Magazine has listed Silverdale in their top 100 list of best places to live. We are close to the amenities of a large city without having to live with the drawbacks. The increase of population in Washington state for the foreseeable future will continue to outstrip construction.

As promised in last year’s letter, our market has shifted from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market. Though sellers are having to be a bit more patient than years past, and cannot afford to be as aggressive with their pricing, homes are still selling. Buyers are in the best position right now. There is plenty to choose from, sellers are being a bit more negotiable and interest rates continue to stay low.

I believe this trend will hold through the first half of 2008, we should begin to see a shift next summer or early fall. If you are thinking of investing in real estate I would recommend doing so before the end of the first quarter 2008. As this cycle works through, the fed will feel pressure to increase interest rates.

I’ve included with this year’s letter a graph showing how our inventory has grown. Should you have any questions about the graph or other market statistics let me know.

Please have a wonderful holiday season and a safe, healthy and prosperous new year. Should you know of anyone thinking about buying or selling real estate in 2008 please let me know or if you just want a market update please feel free to call or check out one of my web resources. Web Page: www.FranklyRealEstate.com or my Blog: www.FranklyRealEstate.Blogspot.com.

PS....sorry for the formating. Blogger just has never done well with cut and paste from MS Word.

Real Estate Statistics for Kitsap County, WA 2/18/2007

Watching stats like these will help you determine what kind of a market you are in.
For Kitsap County Washington as of 2/18/2007
1350 Active Listings
71 Homes went Pending last week
77 Average Days on Market

$305,601 Average List Price
$300,937 Average Sale Price

98% List price to sale price ratio

19 weeks of inventory

Learn more about Defining Your Market.

Annual Real Estate Update for Kitsap County WA

At the end of each year I send out a letter to all of my clients with a 1 page update on what is happening in Kitsap County. Below is this years letter:

I hope this annual letter and calendar find you and yours doing well. Please note that your calendar starts on December 1^st so go ahead and start planning next year today.

2006 has been a good year in real estate despite the doom and gloom you might have heard earlier in the year. The markets throughout the US that had the highest run up in value are the ones that had the biggest decline. Our area has done quite well. Though inventory and market time are up so is the value of your home. In general the value of your home has increased about 9% this year, a much more sustainable increase over the 20% increase of 2005.

Some Stats comparing 2006 to 2004 & 05 for Kitsap County (through Nov. 1 2006)

2004 2005 2006

# of New Listings: 5038 5237 5634

# of transactions: 3823 3871 3406

Avg. Days on Market: 65 58 63

Avg. Sale Price $254,809 $307,235 $336,299 (+9%)

If you were a seller in 2006 you had to be a bit more patient than you’ve had to have been over the past few years. You were not able to choose a list price as aggressive as in the past. Bottom line though is houses are still selling and sellers continue to see appreciation.

If you were a buyer in 2006 you’ve actually had the best of both worlds. Interest rates continue to stay low and you have more houses to choose from. The icing on the cake is that sellers have had to be a little more flexible in their sale price and have been more open to paying some of your closing costs.

I’ve developed two web resources to help you keep up with our market:

Website: http://www.franklyrealestate.com

Blogsite: http://franklyrealestate.blogspot.com (see what is in store for 2007)

Politics/Taxes – This last election cycle has brought in a new County Commissioner. Since there are only 3 Commissioners involved in making decisions for us at the County level the change out of 1 can have a large impact. This last change brings with it an increased risk to your property rights and increases the likely hood of increased taxes. Now, more than ever you need to be prepared to speak out if you see something going on that you disagree with. Letters to your local and state representatives as well as letters to the editor are great tools to get your point across.

Around Town – Bremerton continues to flourish, its skyline almost unrecognizable from a few years ago. We have real, on purpose condominiums being built where in the past Kitsap has seen apartment looking condos or converted condos. The Tacoma Narrows Bridge continues its construction. Stay tuned to http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/goodtogo/ to sign up for your “good to go” sticker that will allow easy passage on the bridge without having to stop and pay a toll

Please have a wonderful holiday season and a safe, healthy and prosperous new year. Should you know of anyone thinking about buying or selling real estate in 2007 please let me know or if you just want a market update please feel free to call or check out one of my web resources mentioned above.



PS Sorry for the formatting, apparantly Blogger does not like info from MS Word.

Conventional Conforming Loan Limits for 2007

Though I'm not a lender this information will affect buyers in todays market.

2007 Loan Limits
for Conventional Conforming Loans

Oregon and
Washington
single-family to $417,000
two-family to $533,850
three-family to $645,300
four-family to $801,950

Thank you to Cherie Kesti of Windermere Mortgage Services for the above information; www.windermeremortgageservices.com

What is in store for Kitsap County real estate in 2007.

What is in store for Kitsap County real estate in 2007.

2006 is wrapping up nicely. Homes have continued to appreciate on the average of 9% this year. Though homes are on the market a little longer and sellers are having to be a bit more flexible it is still a very good time to own a home and an even better time to be buying one. Buyers have the best of all worlds right now, interest rates are low and home choices are up.

2007 will see much of the same. It appears interest rates will continue to be low or lower than the historical average. Home values should continue to appreciate between 4 and 7%. There will be an increase in new construction over the next few years. From a consumers stand point it will be important to be able to compare homes on their attributes and not just compare cost per square foot. We are seeing builders build smaller garages, use vinyl siding, employ manmade products for molding, countertops and flooring and use various grades of lighting, linoleum and carpets. Granted, these are all attempts to build an affordable home but just be sure you can compare one home to another from an informed prospective. It is also worth a moment of time to consider having your own real estate agent represent you as your “buyers agent” instead of settling with the agent who is on site and represents the builder.