This blog is written for anyone who either owns a home in Kitsap or is looking to buy, sell or invest in real estate in Kitsap County WA. The real estate market is constantly shifting and conversations about our changing market are far ranging. The goal of this little corner of the web is to focus the discussion geographically on places like Poulsbo, Kingston, Silverdale, Bainbridge Island, Bremerton, Seabeck and Port Orchard WA.
New Increase for VA Loan Limits
Last week I reported that the maximum VA loan amount was $359,650 in Kitsap County WA. I’m happy to report that the VA has just increased this amount for Washington and Oregon to $417,000.
This means that our service members if qualified, have a better chance of keeping up with the housing market as prices have gone up significantly over the past year. As a whole Kitsap County home prices have gone up 20%.
VA and FHA Loan Limits in Kitsap County WA
The VA and FHA loan limits are different throughout the U.S. This is the upper amount that a buyer can go to when using an FHA or VA loan.
VA $359,650
FHA $215,650
For more information about qualifying for a government loan see your Realtor or a Lender.
New Real Estate Loan Limits
Fannie Mae just raised its loan limits:
Single Family Was $359,650 Now $417,000
Two Family Was $460,400 Now $533,850
Three Family Was $556,500 Now $645,300
Four Family Was $691,600 Now $801,950
Loans greater than this would fall into the jumbo loan category and will usually require different qualifications and higher interest rate.
Real Estate Statistics for Kitsap County 12/11/2005
For Kitsap County Washington as of 12/112005
925 Active Listings
49 Homes went Pending last week
51 Average Days on Market
$277,488 Average List Price
$275,681 Average Sale Price
99% List price to sale price ratio
18.9 weeks of inventory
Learn more about Defining Your Market.
Remodeling your home: Cost vs. Value Report
Did you know that on average remodeling your bathroom may recoup 102.2% of your investment? On the other end of the spectrum remodeling your home office may only garner a 72.8% return of your money spent.
Here is a brief list:Bathroom 102.2%
Minor Kitchen Remodel 98.5%
Siding Replacement 95.5%
Adding an attic bedroom 93.5%
Deck addition 90.3%
Basement remodel 90.1%
Window replacement 89.6%
Roofing replacement 84.7%
Family room addition 83.0%
Home office remodel 72.8%
Please note….these are national averages. Contact your Realtor for a copy of Decembers Realtor Magazine which has more detail as well as a break down based on region and city.
Though you may often only consider needing your Realtor when it comes time to buy or sell a home here is an example where they can offer an ongoing service.
Real Estate Statistics for 11/27/2005
For Kitsap County Washington as of 10/23/2005
907 Active Listings
32 Homes went Pending last week
51 Average Days on Market
$277,143 Average List Price
$275,382 Average Sale Price
99% List price to sale price ratio
28.3weeks of inventory
Learn more about Defining Your Market.
Existing-Home Sales Show Markets Cooling
Total existing-home sales—including single-family, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops – were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.09 million units in October, down 2.7 percent from September’s pace of 7.29 million. Sales were 3.7 percent above the 6.84 million-unit level in October 2004.
David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, says markets are getting into better balance between demand and supply. “We are returning to more balanced markets between homebuyers and sellers, one that places buyers on a more even footing. Housing activity has peaked and is coming down a bit, and we expect further cooling in the coming months. We feel confident that housing is landing softly as rates continue to rise.”
The national median existing-home price for all housing types—including single-family, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops—was $218,000 in October, rising 16.6 percent from October 2004 when the median price was $187,000. The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.
Total housing inventory levels rose 3.5 percent at the end of October to 2.87 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 4.9-month supply at the current sales pace.
“The rise in inventory means that buyers will have a wider choice available to them, and the significant price appreciation over October last year shows that demand is still there, as markets continues to balance themselves,” says NAR President Thomas M. Stevens from Vienna, Va. “Buyers know that housing is a good investment,” says Stevens, senior vice president of NRT Inc.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 6.07 percent in October, up from 5.77 percent in September; the rate was 5.72 percent in October 2004.
Single-family home sales dropped 2.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.23 million in October from 6.39 million in September, but were 3.3 percent above the 6.03 million-unit level in October 2004. The median single-family home price was $216,200 in October, up 16.6 percent from a year ago.
Existing condominium and cooperative housing sales fell 4.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 862,000 units from a pace of 902,000 in September. Last month’s sales activity was 6.7 percent above the 808,000-unit level in October 2004. The median condo price was $229,800, up 15.3 percent from a year ago.
Regionally, existing-home sales fell 1.2 percent in the West in October to a pace of 1.64 million, and were 3.8 percent higher than October 2004. The median price in the West was 316,000, up 16.2 percent from October 2004.
Total existing-home sales in the South declined 1.8 percent to an annual sales rate of 2.76 million units in October, and were 7 percent above October 2004. The median price in the South was $196,000, up 18.1 percent from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest fell 1.9 percent to annual pace of 1.58 million units in October, and were 1.3 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $170,000, which was 10.4 percent higher than October 2004.
Total existing-home sales in the Northeast declined 7.4 percent to a pace of 1.12 million units in October, and were unchanged compared to a year ago. The median existing-home price in the Northeast was $252,000, up 10.5 percent from a year ago.
—NAR
Editor's Note: For more housing statistics, visit NAR’s Economic Research Division at REALTOR.org.
Access to information like this is one of the benefits of being a Realtor.
Housing Stats for 11/20/2005
For Kitsap County Washington as of 11/20/2005
953Active Listings
72 Homes went Pending last week
52 Average Days on Market
$278,189 Average List Price
$275,704 Average Sale Price
99% List price to sale price ratio
13.23 weeks of inventory
Learn more about Defining Your Market
Helping Home Sellers With The Square Footage Question
smallest even foot. An appraiser measures the entire perimeter, noting all measurements on a sketch. Many assessors now use a laser measuring device. The appraiser starts with making a sketch of the entire perimeter, delineating “finished” versus “unfinished” at the end of the process.
- A split-level entry way is only counted once.
- Though potentially it could be divided into upstairs and downstairs space, a two-story cathedral ceiling living room is counted once.
- Areas not directly accessible from finished living space such as storage sheds, breeze-ways, covered patios and detached cottages are never included in the square footage total.
- Garages are generally not included in square footage figures.
- Closets in a finished area are included in “livable space,” whereas a furnace closet in the basement would be calculated as “unfinished.”
- An area with a low ceiling, such as a loft, is measured only where ceiling height is at least four feet.
- For an attached dwelling such as a condominium, square footage measurements can be made from the inside surface of the wall, with an extra six inches added to compensate.
Housing Bubble Questions and Answers
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Real Estate Stats for Kitsap County WA 11/6/2005
For Kitsap County Washington as of 11/6/2005
935 Active Listings
50 Homes went Pending last week
52 Average Days on Market
$276,924 Average List Price
$274,861 Average Sale Price
99% List price to sale price ratio
18.7 weeks of inventory
Learn more about Defining Your Market.
Are you Prepared for a Downturn in the Real Estate Market?
So…..how does this affect me?
If you are a Seller:
You may not sell your home in 4 days. Historically in Kitsap County 60 days was the norm. Only in the past couple of years have we seen such quick sales. You may not want to over price your homes as much as you have grown accustomed to. In fact if the market turns sharply the worst place you can be is to find yourself chasing the market down. Few Sellers have the guts to cut prices fast enough to get ahead of a falling curve. Make sure you’ve covered the basics: Interview and choose the best agent. Don’t base your decision solely on the lowest commission. Many low commission, low service companies have sprung up in this market and they may not have the resources, momentum or tools to market your home or provide you with the personal service a normal market demands.
If you are an Agent:
Pricing - Have the tough love discussion with your seller about pricing. In the past you may have been able to over price a home by 10 to 15% and get away with it. The theory was to just wait…..the market will rise to meet our price. This is dangerous thinking in a changing market.
Marketing – Get back to basics. Priced right. Staged to the 9s. Host Brokers opens…..feed the ones that are working with the buyers. Make sure you have a good web presence. Take lots of pictures. Write three ads and rotate them in the local paper. Identify and work the top selling agents in your market.
Your own business – In a normal market buyers and sellers do not spring up as perhaps they have been. Again…..get back to basics. Return all calls by the end of each day, call 20 people every day, send thank you notes every day, communicate regularly with everyone in your sphere of influence, work un-represented sellers (there will be more of them…aka FSBO), watch your hot sheets and call expired and withdrawn listings, circle prospect every listing, 50 people, 4 mailings, 4 phone calls.
After having read this post you may think I think the market is falling……not true. In Kitsap County we are due to slow, after all anything is slower compared to the crazy market of this past year. Regardless of why it is a little slow now, as professionals we need to keep our ear to the ground for change in the market. We owe it to our selves and most importantly to our clients not to get caught in a falling market without letting them know. Stay tuned……I promise it will change!!!!!
Real Estate Statistics
For Kitsap County Washington as of 10/31/2005
933 Active Listings
51 Homes went Pending last week
51 Average Days on Market
$273,723 Average List Price
$274,119Average Sale Price
100+% List price to sale price ratio
18.29 weeks of inventory
Learn more about Defining Your Market.
Books to Recommend
Please......let me know what you think and if you have any that you would recommend.
Frankly Reading Book List
Housing Stats 10/23/2005
For Kitsap County Washington as of 10/23/2005
890 Active Listings
84 Homes went Pending last week
52 Average Days on Market
$273,981 Average List Price
$273,672 Average Sale Price
100-% List price to sale price ratio
10.59 weeks of inventory
Learn more about Defining Your Market.
Focus
A person’s ability to focus can allow them to accomplish amazing things.
Focus on the right things in the right balance…..Wow!
What sets one real estate agent apart from the others is their ability to focus.
Without your own focus you are just living a life, day to day on someone else’s terms.
So many tasks, so many people, so little time…..it’s all about focus.
Joining a real estate office......a few thoughts.
Size of the office:
First off let me define size from my perspective.
Less than 15 agents is a small office. (a high percentage of offices in this country fall into this category)
16-30 is a medium small office.
31-60 is a medium office
61- 80 is a medium large office
81+ in my opinion is a large office
125+ is a Mega office
Size is not as important as energy, synergy or momentum. I’ve seen offices that have 75 agents and feel dead. I’ve also been with offices that have 20 agents that feels totally energized and driven. What you want to see is a balanced office. One that has a few new agents as will as some old timers. Within that group you want to see even earnings. An office in which you have a few big hitters and a bunch of low producers will not work for the long term. Even though our industry has 10% of the agents making 90% of the money you want to try to find a balanced office.
Market Share:
Having a strong market share means momentum for the office. It means business is rolling through the office and that you have a better chance of getting into that business stream. The make up of the office is more important then market share it holds. I know of several offices that are number one in their market place but they are no fun to work in. An office may hold market share only because they have more agents. What is more important is the success per agent. If an office you like has the energy, an enthusiastic manager, the tools to help you ramp up your business but is only ranked #2 or #3 in the market, go for it. If an office is full of energy and growing, market share will take care of it self. I’ve always prided my office in being number 2 in market share, but number one in individual agent production.
New agent training:
Understand one thing going in……It is always up to you. A good broker will give you the tools, teach you the concepts and offer support, but they will not do it for you. You are in business for your self, start thinking that way.
The worst of the brokers will welcome you aboard, shake your hand and say here is your desk, here is your phone, here is the phone book, now get busy. What you are looking for is a company that will offer real tangible support ie:
Post licensing classes
Weekly training
Personal time with the broker
Staff advisor or mentor program
Other agents you can model that are successful
Business Models:
Boutique or single office: This model represents one end of the office spectrum. Can be cozy and friendly though may lack support that a larger office might be able to afford. May be better for an experienced agent.
Franchises:
The true sense of this model means the core company is no longer interested in selling real estate on a day to day business. Not unlike McDonalds, their goal is to sell and open new restaurants, then sell all of the products to support the new franchise. It becomes the mission of your local McDonalds owner to sell burgers. This model seems to maximize the best of the two extremes. (OK so I’m biased. I co-own three offices that fall into this category) Offices in this category are usually owned by local owners. They often own their own buildings, they are the decision makers and can implement changes a lot easier then the corporate model.
Corporations:
We are talking the mentality here not the necessarily the business type. This represents the other end of the spectrum. There is one main office with one owner for a group of offices. Managers in each of the offices must get corporate permission to make decisions or implement new ideas. Top down management with new ideas starting at the top and filtering their way down. Though your image may be enhanced by a consistent marketing message and you will tend to have more tools and services available, you give up flexibility and ability to change.
Attractions:
Be aware that different business models seem to attack different agent types. Get an idea what type of agent is being attracted to the office or company you are interviewing with.
Tip:
Talk with local escrow officers to get an idea what agents seem to be the most prepared, most professional and seem to do the best job. This may lead you to a company that matches your ideals.
Click here for a list of 10 questions to ask a potential Broker.
10 Questions you will want to ask a Broker Before You Hire Them.
1) How long have you been in the business? (The person, not the company)
2) Why are you still in the business?
3) Why did you choose to work for this office and this company?
4) What do you do to help a new agent get started?
5) Thinking of your last 5 new agents that you’ve hired:
a) How many are still at the office?
b) How much did each of them earn so far?
c) What did they do to become successful?
d) May I talk with two of your new agents?
6) Thinking of the agents you have:
a) How many agents are in your office
b) How many do you want?
c) How many have left in the past year?
d) Why did they leave?
e) May I talk with 2 of your experienced agents?
7) What is your business model? How much does it cost me and what do I receive in return?
8) What makes you different from your competition?
9) What do you look for in an agent? What are your expectations of me?
10) When I have a problem or a challenge how do I get your attention? How do I get guidance from you? Evenings, weekends?
The answers to these questions will help you decide whether or not you want to work with this broker. Don’t forget….while they are interviewing you…..you are interviewing them. You want to make the right decision, the first time.
Now that you have your real estate license.
In the state of Washington a new licensee must place their license with a Broker in order to practice real estate. This can be a daunting decision. How do you choose a broker or company to work with, what do you look for, how do you choose?
Imagine you want to go swimming. You have found a group of indoor pools. You need to figure out which pool you want to jump into. You don’t want just any pool, you want one that is clean, warm, not too crowded, one that has dry towels and nice showers. Sounds easy right……now you have to choose by looking in the windows you can’t actually go in. If you are lucky you might be able to ask some of the swimmers who are leaving the pool. You ask questions to try to get an idea what its like at that pool. You know that once you make the decision you are going to be jumping into the deep end, so you want to make sure you make the right decision, the first time.
Trying to figure out an office to join can be the same way. If you take the time it can be a little easier in that you will want to interview the manager. You will want to talk with several agents who are working for that office. Talk with a couple of long time agents as well as a couple of new ones.
This is not a time for quick decisions, even though the broker may be pushing you to join. I’ve had agents ask me if it is hard to get a job once you have a license. The challenge is not getting a job offer (many brokers will hire you on the first meeting because they just want to put another license on their wall) the challenge is trying to decide why you might want to work for a broker that is so willing to hire you after only one brief meeting.
Click here for a list of books that I recommend to agents just starting the business.
Housing Stats for 10/9/2005
For Kitsap County Washington as of 10/09/2005
917 Active Listings
50 Homes went Pending last week
50 Average Days on Market
$271,515 Average List Price
$271,198 Average Sale Price
100-% List price to sale price ratio
18.34 weeks of inventory
Learn more about Defining Your Market.
A Tool For Real Estate Investors
The process of purchasing an investment property can at times seem overwhelming. Especially if it is something you've not done before or only once or twice a year. On the face of it, isn't it just like buying any other house?............No!
You actually use a different side of the brain to process the purchase of an investment property than you do when buying your own home. The motivations, concerns and thought processes are different. In fact there is a whole new language involved. Annual Operating income, Cap Rate, Gross Operating Income, and Cash on Cash are some of the words and concepts that you need to understand to make a sound investment decision. After all you could put your money in a CD, Stocks, Bonds or Mutual Funds. When considering a real estate investment you are asking yourself "Why should I put my money here? Will I do better than if I invest it in something else?"
One way to answer this question is to sit down with a potential investment and break out a piece of paper and a pencil. The upside to this method is that it takes no batteries, electricity or computer (though a calculator would be handy).
A much easier way in my opinion, is to use a software program that you load onto your computer, especially helpful if you are going to compare several properties or investments to each other.
I've come across an excellent program that does just that. It is called Star Analyzer from a company by the name of Wondering Star http://www.wanderingstar.com/
Just like any new program it does takes a few minutes to get used to the layout and the information it needs. However once you input your first potential investment it quickly becomes apparent how useful this tool is. It will allow you to input multiple potential real estate investments. It will then compare these to each other, as well as to other financial investments. It is wonderful to input once then use often. You can also play "what if" scenarios. What if I put more down. What if I charge more rent. It will also carry your investment and its returns out into the future so that you can see how much you are making in lets say ten years.
Star Analysis even comes with its own mini investment course as well as a trial period to get you settled in. I highly recommend that you check it out at http://www.wanderintstar.com/. I use it as I help investors as well as for myself.
See a demenstration: http://www.wanderingstar.com
California Home Prices May Be Moderating (October 6, 2005)
Only 16 percent of households could afford the median-priced home, which was $540,900 in July, according to CAR. A year ago, the median price was $461,740. In nearly a half dozen regions, only one in 10 households or fewer can afford the median-priced home, CAR says.
But based on the forecast, not all areas of the state will continue to experience the unprecedented double-digit median price increases of the past five years, says CAR Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. Some high-cost areas, especially those in the more costly coastal regions, face a potential leveling off of median price gains compared with the 10 percent gain we expect for the state as a whole."
That predicted 10 percent gain caps out at $575,500.The Golden State's perpetual supply-demand imbalance pushed home prices up 25.16 percent in the year ending in the second quarter of 2005, and 109.7 percent in the last five years, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.
In California, each year ends with an approximate 50,000 shortfall in housing units, based on the number of new households (250,000) and the number of new housing units constructed (an estimated 200,000 this year), CAR says. CAR economists say the supply-demand imbalance will continue to drive the market, but at a much moderated pace next year.
The association's annual forecast also calls for sales to fall by 2 percent. That's a switch, too. In July, sales were up 1.3 percent compared with July 2004.California's high-cost areas, including the Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco Bay Area markets, could see even higher rates of constrained sales, and home price appreciation less than 10 percent, says Appleton-Young.
By Broderick Perkins for REALTOR Magazine Online
I receive this type of information from The National Association of Realtors about real estate all over the United States. I'll pass it on to you as appropriate.
Housing Stats 10/2/2005
For Kitsap County Washington as of 10/02/2005
893 Active Listings
64 Homes went Pending last week
50 Average Days on Market
$271,363 Average List Price
$270,973Average Sale Price
100+% List price to sale price ratio
13.4 weeks of inventory
Learn more about Defining Your Market.
Determining a Value for Your Home
From time to time it is important to come up with a value for your home. You might be checking your insurance coverage, thinking about remodeling, taking out a home equity loan, questioning your last tax assessment or getting ready to put your home on the market.
Despite what internet marketers would have you believe it is not as easy as point and click. You need to have a real live person look at your home, look at homes currently on the market or have sold, look at current market conditions and actually put pen to paper to come up with a value. In that light there are two options; a licensed real estate appraiser or a licensed real estate agent. Each is different in what they look at and how the information can be used.
A licensed real estate appraiser will look at your home and then compare it to homes similar to yours that have sold and closed. They typically look for homes that are geographically close to yours, are similar in structure both in style/layout as well as size. The appraiser will then make adjustments to the comparables to bring them in line with the subject property to mathematically arrive at a value for your home. They do take into account current market conditions but are looking at value based on today at this moment, and back 3 months. Though you may be told differently appraisals have some flexibility based on the purpose of the appraisal. Appraisals done on your home so that you may take out a home equity loan will typically be more generous than an appraisal done as part of the sales process. A simple explanation would be that the bank is loaning money to you based on your credit and good standing and taking the equity in your home as secondary. During a home sale the value would be more primary.
I have been involved with sellers who have asked me to sell their home and have been disappointed when I’ve shared with them that their homes value is lower than the value of an appraisal that they had recently received for a home equity line of credit. There is a good article in September 2005 Consumer Reports outlining this issue.
A licensed real estate agent would be able to provide a value, or price range through a comparative market analysis (CMA) also know in some areas as a Broker Price Opinion (BPO). Though real estate agents take into account many of the things that an appraiser does they are looking at it from a little different angle. Not only is an agent looking at what happened in the past, but they are also trying to look into the future so that they can help you as the seller come up with a price that will sell your home, given the current market conditions. Real estate agents look at homes that have sold, homes that are pending as well as homes that are currently active in the market. They also take into account current inventory, absorption rates, competition in your price range, stratification of the market, list price to sale price ratio as well as interest rates.
A typical house sale or purchase will require a CMA/BPO to help you price or make an offer on your home as well as an appraisal so that a loan can be issued. Some legal situations require an appraisal instead of a CMA. Real estate agents work closely with appraisers so should you need one just give your agent a call.
Updating you on the current value of your home is one of the many services your real estate agent can provide.
Housing Stats 9/26/2005
For Kitsap County Washington as of 9/26/2005
873 Active Listings
69 Homes went Pending last week
50 Average Days on Market
$270,637 Average List Price
$269,978 Average Sale Price
100% List price to sale price ratio
12.6 weeks of inventory
Learn more about Defining Your Market.
Real Estate Agent Designations…. Alphabet soup or substance?
http://www.realtor.org/runivers.nsf/pages/designation?OpenDocument
Fix it before you List it!
Generate a list of things in your house that need fixed, repaired or replaced before you put it on the market, here’s why:
- Potential buyers will guess high for the repair, usually 3 times higher than actual cost. They will then try to reduce the price by that inflated amount.
- When the home is inspected it will show up on the inspection report which here again calls into question cost of repair plus one more task that you as the seller may have to accomplish prior to closing.
- When the appraiser comes out the needed repair will only call for closer scrutiny. Example: moss on the roof. A perfectly good roof may be called into question only because the moss on it drew the appraiser’s attention to it, thus forcing him to call for an additional roof inspection.
The goal is not to try to hide anything, rather to address items that are likely to be brought into question and may jeopardize a good offer or at least slow down the closing.
Regarding disclosure, you are typically better off to disclose any issues up front. Buyers will typically feel short changed or taken advantage of if they learn of a pre-existing problem late in the transaction. Most states have a property disclosure statement that needs to be provided by the seller. Filling one out fully and honestly will protect you as the seller by reducing legal issues down the road with the buyer. Talk with your agent or your real estate attorney for specifics in your area.
Blogroll Me!
Tomorrows Generation of Home Buyers are Here Today!!
This group of 80 million have never known a time without a computer. They are more tech savvy then any previous generation. Much of their lives revolve around what their parents would consider gadgets, and doodads their grandparents never would have dreamed of. (Fortunately a few did or we would not have them today.)
This group will affect what a house looks like, how it functions, how we build them and how we sell them. In order to serve the Echos a typically older crowd of real estate professionals will have to change how they work, how they meet and how they communicate with their new buyers.
Wired houses....video, audio, security, networking and of course high speed internet.
Speaking of high speed, this generation wants quick and constant input. Prompt returned e-mails, updated photos, daily updates on their transactions. Their consumer pressure and improved electronic communication will decrease the time it takes to buy a home. What is now a 4 to 6 week process will become condensed into a 1 to 3 week transaction.
They are more likely to find and choose their Realtor from a web page, because their friend sent them an IM or through a Blog.
The home they choose will have been viewed from every angle without having even visited the house. They will have viewed virtual tours, a photo walk thru and downloaded pictures from space. They will know who bought it, when and for how much via information available on the internet.
Their offer will jump from electron to electron over miles of wire as it makes its way between buyer, seller, agents, lenders, appraisers, title and escrow....and these buyers would have it no other way.
Real Estate Statistics for Kitsap County Washington
For Kitsap County Washington as of 9/11/2005
812 Active Listings
79 Homes went Pending last week
51 Average Days on Market
$266,052 Average List Price
$265,489 Average Sale Price
100% List price to sale price ratio
Learn more about Defining Your Market.
Our Economy, Interest Rates and The Housing Market
Situation Analysis:
1) Interest rates have continued to stay low and have gone down over the past few weeks.
2) There are more people buying houses today then ever before. Many Baby Boomers own homes and are now buying second homes.
3) The Echo Generation, children of baby boomers, are now reaching home buying age with the leading edge now being 23 years old.
4) Oil prices are higher then they have ever been before.
5) Our nations economy is under a great deal of stress due to the war in
Since there is no way that one person can be an expert in all of these areas I look to people whose opinion I trust. In this area it would be David Lereah, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors.
David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said Tuesday that shortages of building materials, made worse by the need to rebuild in areas hit by Katrina, will increase construction costs.
“Given the general tight inventory of homes available for sale across the country, rebuilding in the region of the
In addition, mortgage rates are likely to rise more slowly as the national economy absorbs the hurricane's $100 billion-plus blow, keeping sales brisk, Lereah said.
Lereah boosted his estimates of new and existing home sales for the year, seeing records for both. He said resales of previously owned homes should climb 3.4 percent to 7.02 million units in 2005, up from last month's estimate of 6.98 million for the year. New home sales should increase 6.7 percent to 1.28 million, up from his prior forecast of 1.26 million.
I've had the opportunity to meet David at functions hosted by The Washington Association of Realtors. He is a pretty sharp guy whose job it is to track this stuff. If you see him quoted in news articles take note.
Remember.......Much of the world would love to have the option to buy or sell a home but they can not. Americans have the greatest home ownership opportunity in the world!!!!!!
Blogroll Me!
Are You Thinking About Becoming A Real Estate Agent?
8 or 9 out of 10 agents don't make it their first year.
10% of the agents make 90% of the money.
Having said that, real estate is one of the more exciting and rewarding businesses you can get into provided you come in with your eyes wide open. See The Three Bridges discussion in my web site.
Ask lots of questions of friends who are agents, talk with local brokers.
Read books about getting into real estate.
Start saving your money so that you have start up capital to start your new business.
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If your house is not selling - A Rule of Thumb
A rule of thumb I've taught my agents for years:
> If you are getting no showings, thus no offers you are more than 5% high.
> If you are getting showings, but no offers than you are 3 - 5% high.
> If you are priced right you will get both showings and offers.
Bubble Babble
“Bubble babble” is how Matthew Gardner refers to the increasing speculation that the Puget Sound housing market is heading for a drastic downturn. Gardner is a principal in Gardner Johnson, a Seattle-based land use economics firm that monitors Northwest real estate trends. “It’s a bit like Chicken Little,” he says. “You tell bad news to enough people and they may start believing it.” Gardner’s confidence in the strength of the Puget Sound market is fueled by a number of factors:
1) More people are calling the Puget Sound area home
For the past 20 years, the region has seen steady increases in population each year. Those increases have included years of local economic decline. The area has attracted a well-paid, well-educated workforce—a good foundation for economic growth and, therefore, demand for housing.
2) Local job growth is increasingLast year 47,000 new jobs were created in the area. 33,000 new jobs are projected for 2005 and similar numbers are forecast for 2006. It’s interesting to note that even with the negative employment numbers that accompanied the local dot-com bust era of 2000 to 2003, housing prices during those years still experienced significant appreciation.
3) A limited supply of land keeps demand for housing high
The geography of the Puget Sound area, framed by mountains and water, puts natural constraints on the amount of developable land. The Growth Management Act also limits which land can be developed. Both these factors also serve to restrict the speculative development that is flooding other hot markets. The result? A housing market where demand has continued to exceed supply.
4) For an area of its size, the Puget Sound region is still affordable
Home prices here appreciated 12 percent in 2004 and similar increases are expected for this year. While high, those numbers seem modest when compared to 2004 figures that saw home prices in San Diego shoot up 37 percent and Las Vegas prices soar 52 percent. The median price for a home in San Francisco is $630,000, nearly double what it is in Seattle. In fact, Seattle is actually more affordable than Portland. While the median price for a home is greater in Seattle than Portland ($321,000 vs. $223,000), larger average income levels in Seattle offset the difference in home prices.
5) Real estate is not a liquid asset
Unlike stocks, it takes more than a phone call or key stroke to sell a home. Consequently, the real estate market experiences fewer fluctuations than other types of investments.
If not a bubble, what does Gardner see on the horizon? Puget Sound real estate appreciation has outstripped income growth, so he doesn’t believe the current levels can be sustained. This year is on track to see an increase in home prices of about 12 percent. Gardner anticipates similar appreciation in 2006. After that he expects price escalation to slowly taper off and settle into growth of 4–6 percent per year, which he considers part of the natural flow of the real estate market cycle.
His advice? “If you find something you like and can afford, buy it. Whether it’s $200,000 or $2 million, a house is a major purchase. It should be considered a home first and an investment second.”
Though I didn’t write it….it’s still good stuff. This article was in our Windermere Weekly Publication.
It has been said that 5 months or 20 weeks of inventory is neutral territory between the much discussed buyer or sellers market. Before entering into the housing market as either a buyer or a seller it is important to determine where your market is.
If you have less than 20 weeks of inventory, as Kitsap does, then it is a sellers market. If you have more than 20 weeks then it becomes more and more of a buyers market the higher the number becomes.
Kitsap County Washington currently has 11 weeks of inventory. In other words, we have an absorption rate of about 70 to 80 houses a week. We currently have about 782 listings on the market. We are clearly in a sellers market. What does this mean to buyers and sellers?
To Buyers:
1) Realize the market you are in and plan accordingly.
2) Plan to place a strong offer if you really intend to get the house.
3) A strong offer means:
a) You are pre-approved with a lender and have a letter to that affect.
b) Try to tender a conventional offer, FHA or VA unfortunately are viewed as weaker offers.
c) Provide for a respectable earnest money amount. This does not mean $500 or $1000 as
has been customary in our area. If you are putting 20% down on your conventional loan,
show some of that to the seller. Put 10% or more up as earnest money.
d) Put a significant amount down on the loan. 20% will eliminate PMI.
e) Trim down any additional requests you might have of the seller. This does not mean
however that you should not have an inspection. Inspections protect all parties involved.
f) Offer a closing date or other terms that may accommodate the seller. Your agent should be
able to glean these details from the listing agent.
g) Your real estate agent should present the offer to the seller and the listing agent. If the
seller is out of area your agent should at least meet with the listing agent face to face to
present your offer.
h) If you have to sell a home before you can buy this next home you are at a distinct
disadvantage....consider a bridge loan. Talk with your lender.
i) And last.....in a sellers market make your best offer right off as you may well not get
another chance to better your offer. There will probably be multiple offers.
To Sellers:
a) Strategize with your agent how to deal with multiple offers.
b) Don't get greedy, it is better to have an offer a few thousand dollars less that actually
closes then a larger offer that doesn't.
c) Don't be in a hurry....though time is of the essence. If an offer comes in that does not have a
response time until the next day...wait it out. If another offer materializes then you can bid
the two.
d) My opinion.....It is better to counter offer on the best of several offers then do a
simultaneous counter offer to several offers. Discuss this with your agent.
e) There is often talk or chatter about agents who are about to write up an offer. Stick with
what you have in front of you. The bird in the hand beats two in the bush.
f) Don't second guess yourself. Human nature leads us to wonder, "Wow, if we got an offer
this fast maybe we under priced and could get a boat load more for our house??" Do the
research, have your agent do the research (that’s what they do), figure out your expenses
and your needs. Pick a price that works for you and is logical in your current market. Stay
focused on the goal....why are you selling in the first place and what is your next step.
Last....Be Happy! Much of the world would love to have the option to buy or sell a home but they can not. Americans have the greatest home ownership opportunity in the world!!!!!!